The individual player matchups have been broken down and they favor the Colts
heavily. Dallas Clark is a matchup nightmare for any linebacker and will
most likely overwhelm either safety for the Rams — Craig Dahl or Oshiomogho Atogwe
will not be able to cover Clark one-on-one — so St. Louis can either take a
risk and put one man on Clark, or double cover him and risk being exposed
elsewhere.
They can't single cover Reggie Wayne and Dahl is lacking in his
support over-the-top, so even if they double Wayne he still may be able to gash
them deep.
The Rams also don't have a player that can single cover Austin Collie or
Pierre Garcon. Even if they double Clark and Wayne, Collie or Garcon could
still make them pay in single coverage, provided that they rush four, drop
seven, and leave someone to spy Peyton Manning, Donald Brown, or Joseph Addai,
since the Colts would eventually figure out that they simply need to send
everyone deep and complete easy passes to Brown or Addai underneath.
If
St. Louis rushes four and drops seven, their front four is not good enough to
consistently pressure Manning and, if he's given five seconds to survey the
field and make a decision, he will make a decision that will end badly for the
St. Louis Rams.
If the Rams decide to play mostly Cover 2, Clark will eat them up in the
intermediate middle, Garcon and Wayne will destroy them at the corners, Addai
and Brown will clean up what's left underneath, and Collie will make enough of
the inexperienced and overly aggressive defenders for St. Louis miss that he
will do some serious damage after the catch.
On top of all this, Indianapolis should be able to run the ball off left
tackle, off right tackle, around left end, and around right end, pretty much at
will, since they are averaging about four yards a carry to those areas of the
field and the Rams are giving up about five yards a carry.
If the Colts
are also able to run the ball at will, that opens up play-action passing, which
makes it easier for Manning and company to operate in a game where they didn't
need any additional advantages and the Rams didn't need any additional
challenges.
The scariest thing for St. Louis is that Manning currently leads
the league in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and yards per game even
though the play-action passing game for the Colts has been largely non-existent,
at least for the last three quarters of every game this season.
With weakside linebacker Will Witherspoon being traded to the Eagles earlier
this week, look for Manning to get the ball to Collie as well.
When statistics are brought into play, it doesn't get any prettier...
- The Rams are the 27th-rated pass defense in the NFL. The Colts are the
number one rated pass offense.
- St. Louis has faced an astounding 41 deep passes thus far this season.
They have allowed 565 yards on those passes, or 13.78 yards per attempt.
The Colts have attempted 33 deep passes -- 18 to Wayne, who faces the most
favorable matchup of anyone on the field -- and have gained 533 yards on those
passes, or 16.15 yards per attempt.
- Over the course of the past three games, Manning has become more comfortable
with Garcon in the deep area of the field. In the first two games, he
attempted three passes to the deep right and all three fell incomplete. In
the last three games, he has attempted six passes in Garcon's direction and has
gained 119 yards on those passes, or just under 20 yards per attempt. This
area of the field is the Achilles heel for the Rams, as they allow 15.85 yards
per attempt to that area.
Wayne and Garcon should have success deep, Clark and Collie will carve them
up underneath, and Addai and Brown will get whatever is left over. All in
all, a pretty frightening set of matchups for St. Louis and a very attractive
set of matchups for Indianapolis.
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