Once the New Orleans Saints lost to the Cowboys last Saturday night, the 2009
Colts joined the 1972 Miami Dolphins and 2007 New England Patriots as one of
three teams to start the regular season 14-0. Let's take a look at how
Indianapolis stacks up against its two partners in perfection...
Through 14 games, the Colts have scored 394 points and allowed 248 points,
with a point differential of 146 points. According to the Expected
Win/Loss statistic on ProFootballReference.com, they should be 11-3 (their
Expected W/L is actually 10.5-3.5, but I rounded up/down), given their schedule
thus far and their points for versus points against ratio. A deeper
explanation of the statistic can be found
here.
Through 14 games, the 1972 Dolphins finished with 385 points scored, 171
points allowed (214 differential), and an Expected Win/Loss record of 12-2
(12.2-1.8). The Patriots scored the best in these metrics, with 523 points
scored, 232 points allowed, and a 299 point differential. They also fared
the best in the Expected Win/Loss category, as they scored a 14-2 record for the
2007 season (13.8-2.2).
In terms of the regular season, the Colts scored
the worst of the three teams, though many football historians point to the fact
that the 1972 Dolphins won a lot of close games and played an easy schedule,
while the 2007 Patriots played a mediocre schedule and won a lot of games in
blowout fashion.
That Dolphins squad won eight games by two touchdowns or more, including two
shutout victories of 52-0 (against the Patriots) and 16-0, while the 2007
Patriots opened up the season by slaughtering most of their opponents and
establishing a record-smashing pace that evened out a bit by the end of the
season, but ultimately resulted in that team setting a number of NFL regular-season records. That edition of the Patriots beat their first eight opponents by 14 or more points
until they squeaked by the Colts on Sunday night in Week 9. For the
season, they tallied up 11 wins of two touchdowns or more, with ten of those
coming in the first 14 games. Indianapolis has not breezed to a blowout
win since they beat the Rams 42-6 in Week 7 and have had to stage seven fourth-quarter comebacks in their first 14 games.
All three teams withstood their fair share of drama and showed tremendous
resiliency throughout their 14-0 start, but history will most likely remember
the Colts as the least impressive of these teams, especially over time.
History has not been kind to a Miami squad that was the only unbeaten, untied
team in the history of the league and, of course, recent NFL historians can
easily point to the fact that New England fell short of their ultimate goal by
losing in the championship game.
There are two things to take away from this information:
- As Indianapolis already knows, it's not how you start, it's how you
finish.
- As long as the Colts win another championship, they don't care how
history remembers them.
The interesting thing about the postseason fates of the Dolphins and Patriots
is that both teams played close games in the playoffs even though they had a
number of runaway games in the regular season. New England didn't beat a
team by two touchdowns in the 2007 playoffs and Miami won their postseason games
by six, four, and seven points respectively.
In the postseason, the margin
for error becomes smaller, the stakes become higher, and the competition becomes
fiercer. Perhaps it's for the best that Indianapolis hasn't had a ton of
easy victories considering that their postseason schedule will be full of tight
games that they will need to win in the fourth quarter. It's possible that
the Patriots were so busy sitting on the sidelines or running up the score in
the fourth quarter in 2007 that they lost their killer instinct.
But, ultimately, it comes down to winning championships. It doesn't
really matter how the Colts get to 14-0 or 15-0 or 16-0, or hopefully 19-0, the
point is that they get there. There are a number of players on this team
that understand that regular season success generally doesn't have much to do
with winning it all. They probably understand that concept better than
anyone else in the league.
They need to take care of business, stay
focused, and keep their eyes on the prize. Historians can say what they
like, as long as they also have to acknowledge that the 2009 Indianapolis Colts
won Super Bowl XLIV.
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